Casino Tips To Win Money
All of these tips should improve the amount of entertainment and fun you get while gambling, even if they don’t actually increase your chances of winning. For most gamblers, recreation is the goal anyway—if you have more fun for your money, you win even when you’re losing.
- It is not easy to win at slots. Slots are based on randomness, and winning big money is not a common thing while knowing the secret of how to beat the slot machine is the dream of every player. Since everything in gambling depends on fortune, there is no guarantee of success when visiting a casino. Tips and Tricks to Beat Slot Machines.
- Take a look at eight tips that will give you better odds of winning money at a casino every time below. Play the Casino Games With the Best Odds When you first enter a casino—either in person or online—the first thing you’re going to notice are all the shiny slot machines.
However, I’m going to disappoint many of you. It is not easy to win at slots. Slots are based on randomness, and winning big money is not a common thing while knowing the secret of how to beat the slot machine is the dream of every player. Since everything in gambling depends on fortune, there is no guarantee of success when visiting a casino.
Tips and Tricks to Beat Slot Machines
There are a few tips for increasing your chances of beating a slot machine. The number 1 principle is always to remember that each slot machine has its own payroll structure and rules.
There are still many different enthusiasts who are searching for patterns in slots’ outcomes. And most of the 100 % bulletproof systems of how to beat slots originate from these enthusiasts.
The fact is, however, that slots have no memory and every game is based purely on luck, or the lack of it. The only correct strategy is to play and stick to a few rules in order to help you to play better. However, these tips are not based on any systems or statistics of slot machines.
1. Find the Slot with the Highest Return to Player
The well-known craps player, Frank Scoblete, in one of his books describes the encounter with his guru, a legend known as The Captain. At one of their first meetings, he gave Frank this good advice:
“Do not play games with high casino advantage. It’s offering higher payouts, but you will definitely lose more money in the long run.”
This same advice applies to slot machines. Each online slot machine offers a different return, or RTP (return to player). The higher the RTP number, the less you lose. Especially if you play often. RTP can be found in the information of all games. Most online slots have a return to player of around 96 %. If it offers a lesser number, you should not play it. Some slots have a superb RTP of around 98 %, for example, Blood Suckers by NetEnt.
Before you start playing for real money, just try the slot for free. Every online casino offers that. Launch the game and try to find Return to player figure. If it is very low, do not play this game no matter how good looking it is. Never play games of place bets with bad RTP.
2. Watch Your Bankroll
You cannot win every time, so always know just how much you can afford to spend. Determining the amount of money that you can use for the game is one of the basics of proper money management.
This is very important for all players. It does not matter how you play, what you play or how much you play.
You should always bet to achieve the longest gaming sessions as possible. It is also necessary to keep your bankroll so that you can experience a winning series that pumps your bankroll through the roof. If you lose your bankroll too soon, you will have absolutely no chance of getting a positive series during the game. In the online casino, always think of this golden rule of online gambling.
Smart players always know when to leave the table. And it doesn’t matter whether they are winning or losing. This is the best way to protect your money. Always set limits on winning and losing. It depends only on you. Be careful, this is very important.
3. Watch the Time
Always keep in mind how much time you spend at the slot machines. The best way of doing this is to combine it with the previous point. Just watch it by setting a financial limit. For example, you end up winning the chosen amount and stop playing until another day.
4. Lady Fortune is Standing at Your Side
Have a lucky streak? In that case, keep playing. But keep yourself in line and do not bet more than you can afford. Because it might also happen that you will eventually leave with empty pockets. And of course, no player likes that.
5. The Direct Proportionality Doesn’t Apply to Slots
We mentioned earlier that you should play in a way which helps you to play longer. But it is important to realize that a longer session doesn’t always mean bigger winnings. If you meet your limit, you should end. We mention betting strategies a little further on.
6. Play at the Maximum Bet (when it is convenient)
But only if you are worth it! The amount of your bet should always be based primarily on your total bankroll. When playing slot machines, you can change the bet at any time, so there is no problem here.
Because of the negative expectation, betting with the max denomination will only deplete your bankroll faster. On the other hand, in some situations, it may be beneficial to play for more money. This is particularly the case when higher bets will unlock additional game features and increase the return to player figure or allows one to win a progressive jackpot.
For most of the progressive slots, jackpots are only available to players who bet at the maximum level. In such a case, it is always better to bet for a max. Otherwise, you only raise the jackpot for the player who comes after you. If your bankroll does not allow you to bet on max with jackpot machines, it’s better not to play at all.
7. Take Advantage of Casino Loyalty Points
Not many people know that using a loyalty point which online casinos offer could lower the house edge.
Let’s say, for example, that you get 1 point for every €5 bet on the slot machine. You can exchange 100 points for €1. Therefore, for every €500, you can get €1 in cash.
With the little help of Mathematics, we will find that for each €1 you will get back €0.002. In conclusion, the RTP of the machines will increase by 0.2 %. It’s not too much, but in gambling, even tenths of percents count.
8. Slot Winning Frequencies
One of the things that most novices are not familiar with is the winning frequency. This indicator shows how often you can expect a win, on average. Slot machines have an average winning frequency of 10 to 20 %. That means that (again on average) every 10th to 20th spin wins.
If a slot machine pays out more often, it usually means that individual winnings are lower, but you can play this online slot longer and wait for a bonus feature. If a slot pays out less often, it probably doesn’t have any bonus round or features, but the payouts for individual winning lines are higher.
With this knowledge, you could adjust your play to your bankroll and style.
Strategies and Betting Systems Which Help You Win at Slots
If you’ve already read something about betting systems and strategies, you might notice that they can be divided into two categories:
- Change the betting pattern when winning or losing
- Change the betting pattern when changing the player/casino advantage
Betting systems, when the bet amount depends on the outcome of the previous round, have been well known for centuries. For example, Martingale, when a player doubles a bet after a loss and returns to the basic level when winning, was the first betting system ever. A similar system is also known as Fibonacci, which uses the famous mathematical sequence.
What is interesting about these two systems is that, without bet limit or bankroll size, they show a long-term increasing tendency, but with deep falls. However, after adding adjustments such as table limits, these systems are also hopelessly unusable.
Systems from the second group are more far more exciting. The player changes the bet amount when the expected value (or house edge) changes. These systems are mostly used by card counters at blackjack, where the house edge varies according to the number of remaining high cards in the decks.
There are several betting strategies for slot machines that fall into both categories. So let’s take a look at some of them.
1. Betting Strategy for ELK Slot Machines
Some elementary systems have already been developed by people from the ELK company, who make online slots. They have made up 3 betting strategies:
Leveller
The bet will increase by 2 levels after every 5 consecutive losses. When the player wins, the bet returns to the original level.
Booster
The bet will increase by 1 level after each loss until it rises by 4 levels. When the player wins, the bet returns to the original level.
Jumper
The Jumper system is the opposite of the Booster. In this case, the bet increases by 1 level after a win until it rises by 4 levels. Each loss returns the bet to the original amount.
You can try these systems free of charge at the Taco Brothers slot machine. Any of these 3 strategies can be selected directly from the game menu, so players don’t have to adjust the bet amount after each turn.
Just remember! These are not proven systems, and the game developers themselves claim that playing according to these strategies don’t change the return to player of the slot machine.
2. Strategy for Slot Machines 20 + 20
We like to try out new things. And this betting strategy is quite new. But be careful, it is so drastic that we must warn you in advance:
With this strategy, your bankroll will not win in the long run. It is based only on luck. For this strategy, you need exactly €135. If you have less, it makes no sense to bet on this system.
Betting Principle
You start by playing a 25-cent slot and you play 20 games with one unit. It will cost you €5. If you are in profit after these 20 spins, start the next 20-spin series. But if you finished this 20-spin series at a loss, move to the next level.
The basic principle is very simple: You always play 20 spins. If you win, you remain on existing bets. Once you are below the initial bankroll level, you move to the next step.
So if you lose 20 games with a 50-cent bet, you go for the dollar bet for a €1 spin and after that the final for €5. Twenty dollars cost you €20 and €5 costs €100.
The worst thing that can happen and often happens is when you lose all 80 games in a row and you lose all €135. But during the 20-game sequence, you usually hit some small winnings.
Which Slots Are the Best for 20+20 System?
A very important thing is to choose the best possible slot machine for this strategy.
Play only on slot machines that pay out winnings at the same rate. For example, one credit jackpot is paid €400, two credits are paid €800 and three credits payout €1 200.
Once you’ve crossed all levels, from 25 cents to €5 check your bankroll status. If you’re in extra, go to €5 slots, if you’re at a loss, go to 25-cent slots and play again.
You must have at least €135 for each 20 + 20 series. Whatever amount you have won or lost in the previous game, always put it away and do not play any further with it.
You do not have to play the whole game on one slot machine. If you do not like the 25-cents play, you can go right away to the next level. Follow your guts, it’s a lucky system. Choose your favourite slots and enjoy the game.
Hot to Manage Finances
The disadvantage for the 20 + 20 system is that you lose far more money on €5 slots than on slots with a different denomination. It is true. But on the other hand, these slots usually pay out quite a lot. And if you’re lucky, just two winning spins will cover your entire bankroll for the game.
For this 20 + 20 strategy, your bankroll management is also important. If you have €600, you can play the entire sequence four times. Always follow all 20 + 20 principles and you will see that the game is even more fun. Do not lose control of the game and do not slip away, if you have a losing series. Otherwise, you could lose far more money.
3. Standard Deviation Slot Strategy
Using standard deviation to predict the outcome of a slot machine is a strategy that can be found on some sites. And we decided to debunk it. First of all, let us clarify what the standard deviation is and why we should be interested in the machines at all.
Standard Deviations
The standard deviation is a relatively often used quantity in the statistics, which tells us how much the values are deviated or scattered from the arithmetic mean. In our case, it would be the payout of the slot machine.
Thanks to the random number generator, slot machines’ payouts can be over 100 % in a short period of time, so players can actually get some winnings.
This standard deviation is then referred to as the volatility and it shows us the risk of individual machines. Knowing slots’ volatility can be helpful in creating budget and betting strategies. It is true that slots with high volatility pay less often, but higher figures and vice versa.
Well, this can be shown by a very simplified example, when we wager four bets each of 100 coins on two slot machines. In both cases, we will withdraw €200.
Slot Machine A | Slot Machine B | |
Bet | Win | Win |
100 | 0 | 40 |
100 | 0 | 70 |
100 | 0 | 50 |
100 | 200 | 40 |
Sum | 200 | 200 |
Arithmetic Mean | 50 | 50 |
Standard Deviation | 100 | 14,1421 |
As you can see, in both cases, the result is the same. The player withdraws €200 and a total loss is of €200.
On the Table, you can see that, even though the average is the same for both games, the standard deviation is different. Good news, everyone! You do not have to count the volatility of the slots as we do. Just take a look at the payroll for the individual symbols.
If the top symbol pays out 200 coins, it could be a low volatility slot. If the slot offers 5 000 coins for the highest symbol, it will be a slot with high volatility.
How to Use Standard Deviation Strategy
Casino Tips To Win Money Instantly
On the Internet, you can find a strategy that claims that slot players are able to use this statistical calculation. According to this strategy, you need to find the slots which meet these 3 steps:
- You need to find a slot machine with an even payout ratio between bets. This means that if a slot pays out for a 1-unit bet 5 units’ winnings, it must pay out for a 2-unit bet 10 units’ winnings.
- Determine the usual number of spins between winnings. To define this number, you should play as many spins as possible. But at least 10 winnings should be enough.
- From these spins between winnings, then calculate common arithmetic mean. If the numbers of spins between winnings are 12, 9, 24, 4, 6, the AM will be 11. ((12 + 9 + 24 + 4 + 6) / 5 = 11)
Once you have calculated the AM, play the game for the minimum bet and change it to max every 11th every spin. In some cases, it is also recommended to play for a maximum of 9, 10, 12 and 13 spins to increase the chances of winning. Very simple.
Why Strategy Based on Standard Deviation is Not a Good Slots Strategy
Although at first sight, it may seem that calculating the average number of spins between winnings may be the correct logical step, it is not really the case.
If we ignore the fact that you actually don’t calculate standard deviation at all, this strategy has a major fault.
Because of the random number generator, betting according to the calculated average does not increase the probability of winning.
It is the same example as with a coin flip where, according to the average, every second flip is the winning one. But if you grab a coin and flip it, the short-term results will be different. The same principle is applicable to slot machines.
Sure, once in a while you will surely hit the winning line with the max bet, but the problems are those spins that you will lose.
For this strategy to be effective, it must be ensured that:
Winnings from the maximum bets > Number of maximum bets * (maximum bet amount – minimum bet amount)
A simple example:
We tested this strategy on the Supreme Hot online slot, where we played 246 spins and recorded a total of 20 wins.
Gaps between winnings were 18, 25, 11, 3, 18, 1, 14, 7, 24, 32, 3, 4, 1, 6, 1, 3, 13, 26, 32 and 4 spins. The arithmetic mean was calculated as 12, 3 spins. After rounding, we assume that every 12th turn was a winning one.
We analyzed the game and found that out of the total of 20 max bets, only 1 bet was a winning one. The win was 1 600 coins, but this did not cover the total loss.
Total loss was 1 900 coins (20 bets * (100 max-5 min)). If therefore, under the same conditions, the 246 spins were played with a minimum bet, our bankroll would have been 300 coins larger.
Individual games may differ, but in the long run, it will generally apply that you will lose money with this strategy.
4. Three Rule Strategy on how to Win at slots
Introducing Rule Three. It’s actually a strategy game and sticking to it will maximize your chances of winning.
Rule Three allows you to enjoy longer game sessions, and you’ll come home with some winnings in your pocket. And that’s a great success when it comes to slot machines.
So how does Rule Three work? Take, for example, €600 that you have reserved for today’s slot machine session. The first rule is to find the slot with the right denomination. With €600 you do not have a strong enough bankroll for playing full-stakes dollar machines.
If you want to play a real dollar slot, you have to do it with only minimal bets. And as always, try to find slots with the highest RTP possible.
Now you can even divide your €600 into three groups of €200. Take the first €200 and put it into your favourite slot machine. No matter what that is.
At dollar machines, you only bet $1, at 25-cent slots, you play with the max bet. As soon as you bet €70, stop the game and see if you’re in or out.
If you have won something, have your winnings paid out, whatever they are. From the remaining amount, separate $70 and do not play with it anymore.
How to Play?
Now you have your win and you can play on the same slot machine as follows:
Suppose we ended up with €30 after a €70 session. We’ll put that $30 into the slot machine and we’ll want to double it or lose it, except for €10 (a third of the winnings). Take this €10 and add it to the already deferred €70. Now you will go home with $80.
And what if we initially win €60 extra? We’ll postpone $20. So we always postpone one-third of the winnings. That’s precisely how Rule Three works. Once you’ve built up any winnings, put it all aside and do not play with it.
Now, take another $70 of the $200 stack, roll it into the same slot and play the same formula as you did before. And why on the same machine? Why not? You won, did you not?
Once you roll $70 and you’re not up, pick up what you have left and move to another slot machine.
The First Round Is Behind Us
When you’ve played through the first €200 (€70, €70 and €60), take a short break from the game.
After you’ve had a rest, go through the data of the game and the results. If you’ve lost something, or if you have only a little money left, make it easy for yourself to take a small amount of money home. But do not forget that you still have €400, and you have not lost everything.
After a break, return to play and play the same way you played with the first $200.
Final Phase
Now go to the final stage. If you have won good money, and you are sure that you will go home somewhat richer, play as you please. Take $100 from the last part and try to win as much as possible. You have the money in your pocket, and the longer you play, the higher your chances of winning.
And what if all three mini-sessions are lost? Go home and be glad that you took home something and didn’t go home empty-handed. That’s because you played smart.
Use Rule Three on the machines and you can be sure to be able to play the next day.
Slots Are the Game of Chance
Yes, slot machines could be made according to some pattern, but no casino in the world uses such a machine. Playing the machines is like repeatedly pulling the coloured marbles from the bag, with the ball returning after each round. The fewer the balls of a given colour are in the bag, the higher the payoff value for that colour.
Let’s give an example. In the bag, there are 1 000 coloured marbles. One of them is gold and has a payout ratio of 500 to 1. One hundred marbles are silver and their payout ratio is 5 to 1. The remaining 899 are red and nothing is paid out for them.
On average, the golden ball is pulled out once in 1 000 games and the silver 1 in 10 games. But we cannot determine at what point we’ll get the gold. Each attempt has the same probability as the previous one. Every game is just the same. And the same applies to slots and table casino games.
How to Win at Slots FAQ
How do you pick a winning slot machine?
Since slots are strictly game of chance, there is no way how you can tell which slot is going to be the winning one. But, you should always pick the slot with the highest Return to Player ratio. Do not forget to check other things like winning frequency, payout or bonus features.
Do you not know how to figure out all these things? Try online slots for free. You can play for free without risk, and you will see how the works.
Which slot machines have the best odds?
Generally speaking, online slots have the slightly better return to player than the slots in land-based casinos. Here we were pick up five slots with RTP higher than 98 %, which is quite high.
- Ugga Bugga (Playtech) – 99.07 %
- Blood Suckers (NetEnt) – 98 %
- Rock On (Rival) – 98 %
- Cosmic Quest (Rival) – 98 %
- Break Da Bank (Microgaming) – 98 %
Remember. Even with extremely high RTP, there is no guarantee that you will win. You will just lose less in the long run.
How do you beat the slot machines?
We are sorry, but there is no sure way how to beat slots. There are some tips like finding the slot with the best odds or always keep your money management. The good way to get more from slots is using the VIP or loyalty program. With these programs, you will get some reward for every bet you make. Almost every online casino offers some kind of loyalty promo, and most of them are redeemable with slots. Just check some online casinos and compare the programs.
Can you tell when a slot machine will hit?
You cannot tell when the slot will hit just watching it. You would have cracked the random number generator and do the math.
Does it matter how much you bet on a slot machine?
Yes, it does. You should always choose the bet amount accordingly to your bankroll. With a higher bet, you can lose all your money faster. On the other hand, if you are lucky, you can win much more. And always remember, it is a good practice to stop playing after the big hit.
Should I play Max bet on slot machines?
It depends on the features of the slot. If the slot offers you, something extra for playing the Max bet, then yes, you should play with the maximum allowed bet. The features may include a chance to win a progressive jackpot, extra bonus rounds, extra free spins, progressively higher payout or wins multiplier. All these features can, and will, increase the return to player ratio.
Are slot machines rigged?
All casino games are rigged in the way that they statistically favour the casino. But, the slots are not rigged as many players thing. The slot doesn’t analyze your game and lets you lose intentionally. If you play in the licenced casino, all games are tested by independent auditors.
Are there hot and cold slots?
There are several types of slot machines, which we can divide according to the number of reels, denomination, or the type of the game. Some players even categorized slots into cold and hot ones.
According to some players, when a machine is cold, it means that the slot hasn’t paid out for a long time. And because of this, it is due to do so in the near future. On the other hand, when the slot machine is hot, that means the slot is in the “zone” and will pay out more often.
Do you wonder which of these theories is right? Well, of course, neither. But you can still meet people who see trends in any slot machine. It is based on a phenomenon called the clustering illusion. It states that the human brain tends to see streaks or patterns in random events.
When you analyze historical data of slots you may find these lucky streaks, but it doesn’t mean that you should or could predict future outcomes.
The Final Word
You can condemn, hate or crush slot machines. But let’s admit it, they already have deep roots in our history and they will be with us for a long time. They belong to gambling, where the most important thing is entertainment.
Do you have any of your own guaranteed strategies for slot machines? Share your experiences with us below in the discussion.
Gambling is taking a risk of losing something of value on an unpredictable outcome. When you gamble at either an online or land based casino both you and the casino take a risk in losing something of value. The risk is greater for you because the casino only offers games that provide a statistical advantage to the casino.
Casino Tips To Win Money Real Money
However, much statutory and some case law has been devoted to ensuring that casinos and players don’t cheat each other by subtly altering the conditions of gambling games without each other’s knowledge and permission. You can, though, change the terms of the game. The casino often provides a way for you to do this.
But should you take the offer?
There are two things you need to understand before you can start improving your chances of winning when you gamble. First, you can change the outcome of a gambling game. Second, you will almost always confuse yourself if you try to do the math. These two most common of gambling mistakes help the casinos earn tens of billions of dollars every year.
How You Change the Outcome in a Gambling Game
Many casino gambling games allow and even encourage players to change the stakes, the odds, and even the percentage chances of winning. Here are a few examples of how you can change the outcome of a gambling game (almost always for the worst).
Say you are playing a slot machine game and you win a prize on a spin. A special “Gamble” button lights up. You are now prompted to play a secondary game, maybe betting on the outcome of a virtual coin toss, using the prize you just won as the stake in your new bet. This is an exciting feature. It also means you are risking the loss of what you just won on a game with a better “edge” for the casino.
Most slot games have a theoretical return to player above 75%. Games developed after 2010 usually have better than a 90% theoretical return. The RTP is an estimate of how much money would be retained by a hypothetical player who spun the reels continually for a period of several years. It’s not a realistic estimate of how much money you will win, lose, or hold on to. It’s a statistical measurement used to gauge how friendly the game is to the gambler.
In a coin toss the theoretical return to player is 50% or 1 in 2. So let’s assume you just gambled $5 on a spin in the basic slot game and that you won $10. You have doubled your money. Now the “Gamble” light activates and you are invited to take your $10 and bet it on the outcome of a coin toss. And suppose the “Gamble” feature allows you to wager on the outcome of two concurrent coin tosses. Now you have a choice: bet on 1 coin toss for a chance to double your $10 to $20 or bet on 2 concurrent coin tosses for a chance to quadruple your money.
Your chances of winning the double concurrent coin toss are 25% or 1 in 4.
You would have a better chance to keep your $10 prize and just spin again on the basic game. By taking the “Gamble” challenge you improve the casino’s chances of winning your next bet. It’s like paying $5 for a quarter of pie at one restaurant and then paying another $10 for an eighth of a pie at a different restaurant. Are you really getting a better piece of pie at the second restaurant?
In the game of blackjack if the dealer offers you insurance most experts tell you not to take it. Why? Because you are betting that you will lose your basic wager. The chances of being correct (that the dealer has a blackjack) on your insurance bet are worse than the chances that you can beat the dealer’s hand (your original wager).
The bottom line here is that casinos will sometimes offer you ways to change your stakes and your chances of winning to their own benefit. If you want to win at gambling, don’t take the deal behind door number 2. Stick to your original game and be consistent. Let someone else win the goat.
How to Confuse Yourself at Any Gambling Game
There is a certain idea among gambling experts that comparing the “house edge” in various gambling games helps you to make informed choices. The edge is a theoretical return to the casino, the complementary percentage for the theoretical return to player. In other words, in every form of gambling, there is only a 100% allocation of money. Gambling does not generate new wealth; all gambling does is pool wealth between the bettors and redistribute that wealth between the bettors (and sometimes also a middle man).
In the 1-on-1 game of blackjack there are only 2 bettors in your game: you and the casino. The casino is willing to pay up to the full amount of your bet if you win. It’s an even money match up, and that is really what makes blackjack so profitable for a casino. They risk less per round than they do with, say, roulette or a slot game. But if you have been reading blackjack tutorials you should know by now that the house edge is lower in blackjack than in other games, and therefore you have the best chance of winning in blackjack.
In fact, the dealer has a better chance of coming out ahead because at a busy table the dealer is playing multiple hands at once by the most conservative of rules. In other words, the casino is taking less risk per round in blackjack than the players while at the same time multiplying its chances of winning.
Players make mistakes when playing blackjack. Blackjack dealers don’t have to make hard decisions. In fact, by always going last the dealer often doesn’t have to make any choices at all. The players make most of the decisions in blackjack. And yet blackjack remains profitable for the casinos. The casinos are profiting from player mistakes.
Players make several types of gambling mistakes. One of the most common mistakes is to confuse the probability of winning with the theoretical return to player. The probability of winning is limited to the next round of play. The theoretical return to player is an estimate of what all the players of a game will collectively receive over the life of a specific game (or an arbitrarily large number of rounds in the game).
The rule of thumb is that the more rounds played for a given game the more the actual results of that game will average out close to the theoretical return to player (or the house edge).
But what are the chances of your drawing a natural blackjack on the next deal? What are the chances that the dealer will not win against you on the next deal? These are probabilities that can be computed on the basis of how many cards are left in the shoe, less the cards that have already been played. Those probabilities change as more cards are played but they rarely if ever line up with the theoretical return to player.
The mistake players make is assuming that the house only has a 2.5% chance of winning the next round. The dealer’s chance of winning that next hand can be as high as 100% and as low as 0%. The house edge is always irrelevant with respect to any individual round played on any gambling game from keno to slots to blackjack to baccarat.
When you gamble, it’s nice to know how much money the house is expected to retain over the next 30 days but that won’t help you predict how much you win or lose in any of the next 10 rounds of play.
Expert gamblers like to calculate probabilities but probabilities do not predict the next round’s outcome. The roulette wheel always has a 1 in 37 or 1 in 38 chance of landing on any given number. The chance that the ball will land on number “7” 100 times in a row remains 1 in 37 or 1 in 38. That never changes (allowing for truly random spins, although the laws of physics mandate that the spins won’t be completely random).
On the other hand, what is the expected probability of a random spin of the roulette wheel producing “7” 100 times in a row? This is where you multiply your individual spin probability (1/3x) by itself the number of times in a row (100 in this case). The expected probability of the wheel hitting “7” 100 times in a row is 1.51296e-157 (a very, very small number). But that low probability has no bearing on the probability of the next spin.
This is the dichotomy of probability theory, where you are dealing with large sequences of independent events. The expected probability does not mean you cannot or will not see the unlikely outcome. In this hypothetical example, we are simply computing how many possible outcomes there are and assuming the chances of producing the same result 100 times in a row are equivalent to a certain percentage of those possible outcomes.
Unfortunately (even semi-) random events have a way of defying the probabilities. But if someone offers you 100-to-1 odds that a roulette wheel will land on “7” 100 times in a row, verify their ability to pay and take the wager. They lose as soon as a different result turns up before the 100TH spin.
The bottom line here is simple: don’t try to do the math like an expert. Random chance will always eventually prove the experts wrong.
What You Must Do to Improve Your Chances of Winning
Here are a few basic rules for improving your chances of winning when you gamble.
- Stop second-guessing yourself.
Every casino game offers you a fair chance of winning. The games, when played fairly and legally, pay prizes that correspond to the expected probabilities of given outcomes, although casinos will hold back a little bit extra in most games to ensure they make some money. Hence, in roulette, the most you can win is 36-to-1 instead of 37-to-1 or 38-to-1.
The odds are always stacked against you. But random chance favors the fool, as the old saying goes. You just cannot guarantee you are the fool upon whom random chance showers its favors.
- Take the least possible risk.
In a hypothetical game where you win 100 rounds out of 100 rounds, you will kick yourself if you only wager $5 on each round for the chance to win $5 instead of wagering $100 on each round for the chance to win $10,000 on each round.
In reality, positive thinking doesn’t work when you gamble. The more you assume you could win the more you are likely to lose when you do lose.
Risking less does mean you win less per round but that’s okay.
- Manage your money so that you play as many rounds as possible.
You are more likely to win back $100 in wagers if you divide them into twenty $5 wagers than if you divide them into five $20 wagers.
Instead of playing numbers games (which is second guessing yourself) or assuming you will win a certain number of times (which is taking more than the least possible risk) you should assume you are going to lose more rounds than you win. When you play slots or even a modest keno game (like a 5-pick) you can still come out ahead when you play more rounds with small wagers than fewer rounds with large wagers.
But how does playing conservatively work in blackjack, when the average prize is an even money bet? If you lose only 49% of the rounds in blackjack you lose. Okay, smart guy, you know you need to double down a few times. Instead of playing numbers games and assuming you can lose X number of hands and double down on Y hands, just accept that once in a while you’ll have to double down to improve your chances in blackjack.
When should you double down? The experts agree that if the dealer is showing a 5 or 6 and you have an ace and anything less than a 7.
You don’t need to double a lot as long as you can double enough to come out ahead.
- Don’t try to win big.
That’s the real fun in gambling, though, isn’t it? You want to win the jackpot, hit the long odds, and outwit the dealer at every hand.
Going for the big win is the worst possible way to gamble. You may not be playing all-or-nothing but you are playing too much.
Still, you can adjust the amount of your wagers upward if you are doing well. Just keep them proportionate to your bankroll.
- Use a consistent percentage ceiling in your wager to bankroll ratio.
Although it is prudent to limit your initial wagers to 5% of your original bankroll, at some point you may double or triple your money. Does it make sense to continue playing by the original 5% measure?
Most gamblers will feel confident enough to increase their wagers. But while it’s usually good advice to ignore all betting systems when you gamble (because each has its flaws), you can set a limit of “5% of your current bankroll down to half”, meaning you gamble with $5 bets until you lose half the money you came in with.
If you double your money then you can double your wagers as long as you don’t go above 5%.
Five percent is not a magic number. You can set the percentage at 1%, 5%, 15%, or even 20%. You should be consistent about not going above your percentage. You still have the flexibility of making larger wagers if you roll up your money.
- Divide Your Bankroll At Certain Split Points.
This technique works best in land-based casinos, especially when you can put your money into tickets that are easy to carry around. A split point is a multiple of your bankroll. Say you begin gambling with $200 and you roll that up to $400 at the craps table. Now take half your money and put $200 of it into a ticket.
You can continue playing craps with the remaining $200 or you can try another game. When you roll up your second $200 to $400 again you split the money into another ticket plus money to play with.
After you have 3 or 4 tickets you can rotate them. Never play a ticket all the way down. Leave at least a few dollars on it so you can leave the casino with some money (and a little dignity).
When you gamble online it makes some sense to shift money from the game balance back to your main account. As long as you have money in your game account you should be good. It helps you to stay focused on conservative betting if you take money out of the game when you get ahead of your original bankroll.
- Play with Casino Bonus Money Whenever Possible
Land-based casinos may not offer you signup bonuses but many online casinos do. Play conservatively with the casino bonus money to increase your chances of fulfilling your wagering requirement with just the bonus money. While that won’t always happen the longer you can delay putting your own money into the game the better the chances you’ll start winning.
You can try this strategy with the “no deposit” welcome bonuses some casinos offer but they do limit how much credit they extend to you. You have more bonus money to work with when you accept a deposit match bonus.
- Stick to the Basic Game.
Whether you play slots, craps, roulette, or blackjack the less complicated you make your game the less likely you’ll place dumb bets.
The casino is counting you to make dumb bets. You should count on the casino to be less than generous with its odds on the best most likely to pay off.
There are few progressive wagers that are worth the money. The more you throw into a round the harder it will be to recover from a loss.
In craps bet on Pass or Don’t Pass and play the odds but keep it simple.
In blackjack bide your time and don’t split every time you get a pair of cards of the same value. Should you really split two 5 cards when you’re showing 10 on the table? Should you split two tens? Two nines? You have three options: play the basic game, double down, or split. On some tables you may be able to surrender if you don’t like the dealer’s cards but look at the strength of your cards first and your options for splitting second.
- Assume the free games are more generous than the paid games.
When you have a chance to “try before you buy” at an online casino the free game just may be slightly more generous than the paid version. There are several reasons why this might happen. If you can check the theoretical return to player for a free game and the paid version, look for differences.
Does the free game run on a different server? The different server may be using a different random number generator, a different random seed number, or a different estimated percentage for the theoretical return to player. Variations in all these things can affect the randomness of the outcome of the game.
- Play low variance games.
Sad to say, but the less volatility there is in the prize to wager ratio of a game the more likely it will pay you prizes. Volatility is an important measure for a casino because it needs to know how much cash to keep on hand. But you need to know how long you may have to play a game before you win a nice prize. That is where the variance comes into play.
Think of variance as “how much any random outcome of a game varies from the average expected outcome”. There is a relationship between variance and volatility (in fact, some gambling writers use these terms interchangeably). The casino cares more about the volatility and the player cares more about the variance.
How do you judge variance? It comes down to how long you can play the game with your initial bankroll. A low variance game has a tendency to take less of your money.
Hence, as noted above, you can affect the variance of the game in a limited way by playing conservatively and ignoring the extra bets the house offers.
Conclusion
Think of gambling as an endurance race between the bettors. Whoever can go more rounds wins the most money, unless random chance steps in and hands a big win to the individual gambler. Then gambling is more about who has the most self-discipline. The casino is playing a numbers game and just has to be there with enough cash on hand to keep the games going. The player has to have the wisdom and the self-discipline to walk away with the cash.
Harvard Medical School published a trove of data about online gamblers that was collected from 2005 to 2007 by an online casino (Bwin). Researchers who studied the data concluded that about 11% of gamblers were likely to win and that winners were more likely to play less frequently. Subsequently, researchers from the University of Michigan and the University of Connecticut compared that analysis to their own analysis of data from a Native American casino’s database. The second study found that about 13.5% of the land-based gamblers were winners.
The good news for most gamblers is that fewer than 5% of them contribute about 50% of the casino’s net revenue, and about 10% contribute 80% of the casino’s revenue, so most gamblers are not big losers. That means approximately 80% of gamblers share the burden of about 20% of the casino’s net revenue between themselves. Given that most people cannot lose enough money (for lack of wealth) to drop into the lower 10% (the Big Losers) changing how one gambles increases an individual’s chances of moving into the upper 10%.
Gamblers with little wealth to lose should still learn to make better choices. You cannot guarantee you will win but you can always cut your losses short or take fewer risks. Gambling is more fun when it is just entertainment. If your losses amount to no more than what you would spend on other types of entertainment such as concerts and travel, then have fun.
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